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Premier League: Three Up…Three Down

Twelve months on from the ecstasy of promotion to the Premier League comes the pain of a swift return to the Championship…and so it is for Vincent Kompany’s Burnley and Rob Edwards’ Luton Town, who have joined long-relegated Sheffield United in the bottom three.

That all three promoted teams have been relegated tells us what a huge gulf there is between the top two divisions, and I wouldn’t bet against at least one of them making a bounce back this time next year.

At the start of the campaign, the SBOTOP Premier League 2024 betting odds predicted a rapid return to the Championship for Luton and a lower mid-table finish for Burnley, but, in reality, the Hatters made a much better fist of it, punching above their weight and taking their fight to the very last day. 

But what does relegation mean to these two teams?

There is a big difference between Burnley and Luton in their aspirations and, to some degree, their resources. The Clarets have spent most of the last decade in the top flight, with a foray into Europe along the way, while the Hatters’ unexpected promotion gave them top-flight football just 14 years after they were playing in the fifth tier of English football.

In truth, Edwards’ Luton resembled the Burnley of the 2010s under Sean Dyche, a band of brothers with speed, bite and a smattering of top-flight experience, though Dyche’s Clarets had a bunch of players who were all comfortable in the Premier League.

That can’t be said for Kompany’s Burnley, an expensively assembled collection of young players with huge potential but zero experience in the brutal world of Premier League football.

After taking 25 games to get settled, the Clarets made a run for it to ignite their survival hopes, but back-to-back defeats to Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur put an end to all that. Luton spent much of the campaign in 18th place and not too far cut adrift, but they could never take that step of putting together a string of results.

This is a big summer ahead for both teams, and it will be fascinating to see if either can keep their best players.

Burnley are already favourites to win the Championship and a lot will depend on the pull of Kompany, his ability to convince his stars, and new recruits to accept a year of the hurly burly in the second tier. The Championship is, incidentally, the wealthiest non-top-flight league in the world, the 12th best attended in world football, and it is the fifth most watched league in Europe.  

Kompany will need to raise some funds, and big earners including Jack Cork and Johann Berg Gudmundsson have already said their goodbyes, while Jay Rodriguez and Charlie Taylor are in contract discussions.

Young centre back Maxime Esteve has made his move from Montpellier permanent, and, alongside Dara O Shea, he will form a top-level defensive pairing. Kompany has plenty of young flair players in his squad, though there may be interest in 19-year-old sensation Wilson Odobert, while the boss will be keen to keep hold of player of the season Sander Berge.

It will be a big year for striker Zeki Amdoumi and winger Mike Tresor, who both came with huge reputations from Europe but struggled in the Premier League, and a season in the Championship may be just what they need. Though, in financial terms, the club’s American owners, ALK, will be very keen to limit it to one.

Luton spent carefully on their unexpected arrival in the top flight, and their Premier League 2024 results were better than many had anticipated. Unlike Kompany, Edwards gave the players who won promotion a chance, and led by defensive rock Tom Lockyer, they certainly didn’t let him down.

The captain suffered a cardiac arrest during a match in December, and his teammates did him proud for the rest of the campaign. Thankfully, Lockyer has made a full recovery, and he is ready to go again. 

Will Tom Lockyer play again as defender of Luton Town in the Premier League?
Tom Lockyer celebrates at the end of the match during the Premier League match between Luton Town and Crystal Palace

The additions of Ross Barkley and Andros Townsend gave Luton some Premier League quality, and while Barkley is likely to seek a new top-flight employer, winger Townsend may be happy to stay in North London. 

This writer, a dyed-in-the-wool Claret, is looking forward to a year in the second tier, as are many Burnley fans, in the hope that the club rips up the league as it did in 2023. But I suspect Luton fans would have liked more than one season in the sun, and now they face a fight to bounce back. I doubt it will be easy for any of the three, but Kompany’s Burnley are best placed to return, Edwards’ Luton will be a force again, and I think the Hatters can finish higher than Sheffield United… and that will certainly put them in the mix.

   

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