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Champions League: What Next for Familiar Foes?

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

They rarely do mundane these two, so there’s every reason to expect Champions League 2025 highlights in midweek for the second leg of this play-off tie.

It’s a match-up this SBOTOP writer believes would have been fitting for a final but, due to underperformance in the group stages, only one of the last two champions of Europe will be in the last 16.

And in truth, when it comes to the Bernabeu, it takes something special to back against Real Madrid in the Champions League.


Talking Points

It is certainly advantage Real after last Tuesday’s first leg.

That was when midfielder Jude Bellingham grabbed a stoppage time winner to earn Los Blancos a 3-2 success on Manchester City’s own turf and give them a massive boost, both in terms of scoreline but also psychological as it inflicted a first home European defeat on City (in normal time) in 36 matches.

The reigning Spanish and European champions may not be at their best right now, long-term injuries to key defenders ensure that, but they still possess the talent and nous to get the job done in most circumstances that confront them.

By contrast, City appear to lack the mental strength Real possess without key men of their own.

The absence of defenders has played a big part in their downward spiral since November and, since the first leg, they have suffered another significant blow with Manuel Akanji facing up to 10 weeks on the sidelines.

With Ruben Dias and John Stones managing their game time carefully, and question marks against the effectiveness of Bernardo Silva and the ageing Kevin De Bruyne, this could be one game too far and City’s earliest exit from Europe for eight years.

New recruit Omar Marmoush introduced himself as City’s ‘Egyptian king’ with a superb 14-minute hat-trick against Newcastle to send Pep Guardiola’s side fourth in the Premier League on Saturday but he is unavailable for this contest having played in Europe for previous clin Eintracht Frankfurt earlier in the campaign.

By contrast, it was a frustrating weekend for Real who were held by Osasuna in La Liga, a contest in which last week’s match-winnerBellingham was sent off.

Of course, he can play in the second leg as his subsequent suspension only applies to domestic fixtures in Spain.


History

Champions League: Pep Guardiola's team Manchester City will be coming on the back of a 4-20 win against Newcastle United
Pep Guardiola during Manchester City’s match against Newcastle United

Even before this week’s first leg, these sides had been involved in some key clashes in the past decade.

None more so of course than in the semi-finals three seasons ago.

Then they took part in a first leg which will live long in the memory of neutrals as the two sides produced the joint-highest scoring ever Champions League semi-final.

Somehow, though, the drama was not over.

The following week, I can still remember leaving the hotel restaurant where I was enjoying a few days’ holiday with City 1-0 up in the second leg in Madrid and 5-3 ahead on aggregate with minutes remaining.

By the time I got back to the hotel room and checked the score, I could not believe what I was seeing.

The remarkable turnaround saw Rodrygo score twice – in the 90th minute and then in stoppage time – before Karim Benzema’s extra-time penalty won the day and sealed a 6-5 aggregate victory.

Real went onto be crowned champions of Europe a few weeks later and, of course, are the current holders too.

City gained revenge convincingly at the same stage a year later with a 5-1 aggregate win and finally realised their European dream a month later.

And then in the quarter-final last term, the sides shared six goals in another epic in Spain before a 1-1 draw in the second leg – Rodrygo and de Bruyne the scorers. Real went onto triumph 5-4 on spot-kicks after more than 220 compelling minutes.

They met in the 2016 semi-finals too, drawing 0-0 in Manchester before Fernando’s own goal at the Santiago Bernabéu took Real to the final, where they beat city rivals Atletico on penalties.

Guardiola’s men avenged that defeat in 2020, with 2-1 success away – a night when Sergio Ramos received the 26th red card of his career and  City came of age in Europe – and then at home when City took advantage of Real defensive errors.

The sides’ only other competitive fixtures came in the 2012/13 group stage when Madrid twice came from behind to win 3-2 in Spain on Matchday 1. City led twice through Edin Džeko (68) and Aleksandar Kolarov (85) but Madrid responded through Marcelo (76) and Benzema (87) before Cristiano Ronaldo snatched a 90th-minute victory.

The return in Manchester ended one-apiece with Sergio Agüero’s penalty cancelling out Benzema’s 10th minute opener.

Those four points helped José Mourinho’s Madrid finish second in Group D, behind Borussia Dortmund; City, then managed by Roberto Mancini, ended bottom with three points having not won a game.


Betting Tip 

The Champions League 2025 betting odds are all with Real who can be backed 1X2 @ 1.84 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.06.

City are priced 1X2 @ 3.31 – the furthest odds I can remember them having for many years – and Asian Handicap +0.50 @ 2.06.

A repeat of their 3-3 draw in Spain last term is on offer @ 26.00 with Correct Score.

I have considered 1X2 Draw @ 3.92 but am going to go for total goal 2-3 @ 2.49 as my *** tip with Real progressing.

A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:

⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)

⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT)

⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)

Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.


 

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