Premier League: Will City Shatter the Forest Dream?

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Third plays fourth in the Premier League clash of the weekend when Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City head to the City Ground to face Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest. 

And this Saturday lunchtime fixture is a battle for the Champions League places – not something I thought I’d be writing back in August. Of course, Nuno’s Forest were expected to be among the strugglers this season, but while Leicester City and the other promoted teams are in an almighty struggle for survival, Forest have ridden high in the league among the elite from the start of the campaign.

But, with 11 games to play, the pressure is starting to be felt, and Nuno’s men have picked up a single point from their last three league games, a 0-0 draw with Arsenal following away defeats to Fulham and Newcastle United.

Meanwhile, two wins from the last three games has left the Sky Blues breathing down their hosts’ necks, a single point behind and with a better goal difference. With fifth-placed Chelsea hosting the beleaguered Foxes on Sunday, a defeat to the Sky Blues could well see Forest drop out of the top four.

The East Midlanders are just six points ahead of Aston Villa in 10th place, and the pre-match Premier League 2025 betting odds suggest that gap could reduce further this weekend.

Both teams had cup successes last week. Forest are in the FA Cup quarter-finals after they navigated a penalty shootout against Ipswich Town on Monday, while City beat Championship side Plymouth Argyle 3-1 to reach the last eight.

Now we’re back to the high stakes business of the top four race, and it will be fascinating to see of Forest can hold their nerves.   

Talking Points

Nuno’s team has been a revelation this term, and one of the biggest Premier League 2025 news stories has been the form of veteran striker Chris Wood, who has bagged an impressive 18 goals, his best Premier League return.

With the box-to-box running of Morgan Gibbs- White and the electrifying pace of former Manchester United star Anthony Elanga, Forest’s multi-faceted attack has been too much for some teams, notably for Brighton, who suffered a 7-0 battering at the City Ground at the beginning of February. Manchester City are likely to counter the threat by partnering the speedy Abdukodir Khusanov with Ruben Dias in the centre-back partnership. 

The problem for Forest’s defence may be more difficult as they face the prolific Erling Haaland, who is now partnered by the livewire Omar Marmoush, another January recruit. Haaland scored his 20th goal of the campaign in a 1-0 win away to Tottenham Hotspur last Wednesday, while Marmoush announced his arrival in Manchester with a spectacular hat-trick in a recent 4-0 mauling of Newcastle United.

Forest full-backs Ola Aina and Neco Williams will have their work cut out to shut off the supply from the ever-improving Savinho and the tricky Jeremy Doku, while the Sky Blues also have the world class duo of Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden still to find their best form.

This is unknown territory for 2024 Premier League champions Manchester City, who are one of the big clubs who can just watch and maybe even admire, as Liverpool march towards the 2025 title. But Guardiola is a winner and, as well as eying an FA Cup triumph this term, he will be determined to take Forest’s third place away on Saturday.    

History

These two teams have met 16 times over the last three decades, and the Sky Blues have had the better of the head-to-heads with eight wins to Forest’s four and there have been four draws. And when the two teams met at the Etihad Stadium in December, City ran out 3-0 winners to end a run of seven games without a win, and that result made it nine games without a victory in this fixture for the Midlanders.     

Neither team has been in consistent form recently, both winning three of the last six with City losing three, while Forest drew one and lost two. But two of Forest’s wins have been penalty shootout wins in the FA Cup against Ipswich and Exeter City.      

Betting Tip

Forest are at SBOTOP odds of 3.43 to win this game and 3.50 to Draw this match, and in a third versus fourth clash that could look generous. But now that we are reaching the business end of the competition, the pressure is beginning to ramp up, and now we’ll see which teams have the strongest nerve in the run-in. But experience counts too, and that’s where Manchester City have a huge edge over their hosts.

 

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