UEFA Nations League Germany vs Italy: The Rematch

Germany vs Italy

UEFA Nations League Germany vs Italy is the entertainment on offer at Borussia Park on Tuesday night and it’s a game we’ll be reporting on here at SBOTOP.

It’s the biggest match of the week and we expect a belter!

These two European heavyweights drew 1-1 last week as Lorenzo Pellegrini put the experimental Azzurri ahead before Joshua Kimmich hit back for the Germans. And after both drew their weekend fixture, Roberto Mancini’s Italy sit proudly at the top of Group A3, with Hansi Flick’s Germany in third. 

Only two points separate the teams so Germany could take the top spot with a win, providing England can avoid a second defeat to Hungary on Tuesday.

Talking Points

Hofmann staking his claim for Germany

Borussia Monchengladbach midfielder Jonas Hofmann scored against England and again in the 1-1 draw with Hungary, and that makes it three in four games for his country. Germany made a slow start against Hungary and were largely ineffective against a well-organised defence. The Magyars opened the scoring when Zsolt Nagy picked up a rebound to hammer his shot past Manuel Neuer, but the visitors were level when Hofmann clinically slotted home the equaliser.

That was on nine minutes and it was the last shot Germany had on target, which was strange as they knew a win would likely take them top of the group. Flick’s men dominated possession with 67 per cent of the ball but were surprisingly toothless as the Magyars won the shot count by 11 to six and seven to one on target. The Chelsea duo of Timo Werner and Kai Havertz toiled but with no success and both were hooked before the end of the game.

The Germany vs Italy betting odds are backing a home win and they are now undefeated in 12 under Flick, but Hofmann is the unlikely man they are relying on for goals at the moment. 

Mancini’s Italy Mark 2

The FIFA world rankings place Italy in sixth position and six places above Germany, but that statistic flies in the face of their current standing in world football. The Azzurri are missing out on World Cup 2022 in Qatar and, after turning up at every finals since 1958, it is the second World Cup in succession they will be absent. But then, strangely, they are European champions.

Italy met England on Saturday, just 11 months after they beat the Three Lions in the final of Euro 2020, but with a much-changed side. Mancini has blooded some new players and they pretty much achieved the same as the old guard, frustrating England on their home turf. But the draw means Italy have won just four games from 13 since being crowned Kings of Europe.

The question we’re all asking is whether last summer’s success was merely a brief moment of chance amidst an Italian decline; in fairness, it was largely down to the leadership and granite like resistance of Chiellini which broke Spain in the semi-final and England in the final. But the Azzurri had been on an amazing run, 37 matches unbeaten until they lost to Spain in the 2021 Nations League semi-final. 

The shame of missing out on the World Cup again has prompted Mancini to look at some new players. There is no Chiellini, no Leonardo Bonucci, no Lorenzo Insigne and no Ciro Immobile in this Nations League squad, while Milan’s 22-year-old midfielder, Sandro Tonali, and Sassuolo’s 23-year-old striker Gianluca Scamacca have been starting.

With Juventus’ Manuel Locatelli and Roma’s Pellegrini still in midfield this is a gradual evolution, while Napoli’s Matteo Politano has taken his opportunity with three goals in six internationals.

After three games this new look Italy are at the top of Group A so Mancini will stick to his guns and try to produce another winning team.

History

The Azzurri have had the better of the Germany vs Italy results since 1996, winning four to Germany’s two and there have been five draws.  

In terms of recent form Italy have had two wins, two draws and two defeats in the last six, while Germany have earned two wins and four draws. As well as being unbeaten in 12 in all competitions, Flick’s side are unbeaten in seven games on home soil.

But Mancini’s Italy is happier on the road than at home and are unbeaten in 15 away games.

Betting Tip

Germany are fancied to win this match at a price of 1.75 with Italy’s new-look side at a tempting price of 3.98.

But four of the last five meetings between these famous football nations have ended in a draw and I’m backing another stalemate here.

And to back up my theory, for a Correct Scoreline the joint lowest odds are on a 1-1 Draw at a price of 5.99, the same odds as a 1-0 home win.

 

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